How to Spot the Bottom… Then What to Buy, Home Prices Crash, Has China Peaked? And More!

http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/how-to-spot-the-bottom%E2%80%A6-then-what-to-buy-home-prices-crash-has-china-peaked-and-more/10707

The entire financial world had placed a wild bet that house prices in the U.S. would go up indefinitely. The year 2008 will go down in history as the year that proved them wrong… and then all hell would break loose.

Rather than commit hari-kari… let’s do something unusual and try to think, umn, positive… it is the holidays, after all. How will we know when the bear market is bottoming? And what should we buy when it does?
“Normalized earnings for the S&P 500 could be $60-70,” Agora Financial’s managing editor, Chris Mayer, opined this morning, taking a shot at an answer.
In layman’s terms, that’s a possible low of 600-700 for the S&P 500… 30% lower than it is today.
“The S&P at 600 is entirely possible,” Mayer continues. “So we could have more room to go. But it doesn’t have to go there. Signals to watch — when earnings stop falling quarter to quarter. I actually think we’ll see a big rally early 2009 a la 1930, when the Dow was up 48% from its bottom by April. Big rally coming, and that will be your last chance to dump your weaker holdings.

If you are going to invest in stocks in 2009,” Mr. Mayer suggests, “stick with hard assets, management teams with proven track records, strong balance sheets and businesses with good disclosures (i.e., no black boxes or funny business). Ag-related stocks will have a good year, I think — fertilizer stocks, in particular. Oil stocks will come back, too, particularly oil field service stocks.

Natural gas stocks will do even better, particularly the low-cost producers.
“I think now is a good time to pick up India’s blue chips, if you can sit with them for a while. I like emerging markets still. This is a pause, and not the end, of the emerging market growth story. It’s much bigger than most people think. India has less exposure to exports than China, has a lot of savings, little debt, a very young population (half under the age of 25) and some leading companies dirt-cheap…

After briefly falling below 80 yesterday, the dollar index has stabilized around 80.6 today. The euro and pound are on the verge of parity for the first time ever. The pound, slammed by a large U.K. recession, housing crisis and lower-than-normal rates, has weakened to 98 pence per euro. Year to date, it’s down 25% versus the multination currency.
The approaching parity is reflected in the dollar exchange, as well. A euro today goes for $1.40… the pound a “mere” $1.45.
“I believe oil and gold are the places to start getting well positioned in for 2009,” writes a reader, “if one hasn’t already. Oil especially is being primed for a V-shaped recovery. If investors are paying attention, they understand that the unrealistically low price of oil is just that — unrealistic.
“Many oil and gas exploration and production projects have been shelved due to the financial crisis and falling price. Some major oil exporters have exhausted their reserves, Mexico being one. Oil exploration and production require oil prices to be over $100 to be profitable. OPEC drastically cut production levels, due to falling demand. Problems of shortages and spiking oil prices are looming.
“Gold is also primed for a spike as the bailouts and stimulus package get under way. Great way to make up for the losses in 2008 if you’re ready for the ravages that will come along with this!”

“I believe 2009,” writes a reader with his own year-end forecast, “is going to be the beginning of a ‘rich get richer’ story that will reach levels never previously even imagined. This is how I see it playing out. There are many solid companies that have more than sufficient cash to get through the upcoming tough times, but are trading at huge discounts to their historic value. At the moment, the real estate- and energy-related sectors seem to have more of these companies than some other industries, but they exist everywhere. As is often the case, Mr. Market has overreacted and taken down the good with the bad.
“I predict that once there is even a hint that the economy is starting to turn around, there will be a flood of leveraged buyouts whereby those with access to cash will be buying the best companies for a fraction of even their future one-three-year value. And the banks will rush in to provide the financing with the cash they got from the Fed and currently have sitting on the sidelines.
“Bottom line is that Joe the Plumber will find out about a year from now that the only companies still in his portfolio are the companies that the buyout companies did not want. For buyout firms like KKR and Carlyle, this is going to better than robbing a bank, since it is legal. I suggest you provide some guidance as to how to share in this upcoming M&A activity.
“Even a master list of companies that are beaten down but still are earning good money and have plenty of cash would be a start.”